UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate

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As tensions escalate between the world’s economic powerhouses, trade relations between China and the United States have plummeted to historic lows. American tariffs on most Chinese imports have rocketed to an unprecedented 145%, while China has hit back with hefty 125% duties on American goods.

The escalating trade war raises a critical question: Who suffers most in this intensifying economic showdown? Are we seeing calculated posturing, or witnessing a fundamental redoing of the global economic order?

Nail-biting politics is a classic strategy in international negotiations. Each side gradually increases pressure, hoping their opponent will cave before the pain becomes unbearable for both parties.

The Trump administration pioneered this approach during its first term and has doubled down with renewed vigor in its current term. However, today’s conflict has evolved beyond mere nail-biting into what could be called bone-crushing politics, where the aim isn’t simply to win concessions but to inflict permanent damage on the rival’s economic foundation.

The United States wields its clout as the world’s largest consumer market and the dollar’s supremacy as a global reserve currency to set the rules. China, meanwhile, draws power from its massive manufacturing base, grip on global supply chains, and rapidly growing domestic market.

Between these economic giants, the world teeters on the edge of full-blown economic warfare that threatens to exact a steep price from everyone involved.

Recent events mark a dramatic escalation in this tariff battle. After the Trump administration slapped Chinese imports with duties reaching 145%, Beijing swiftly countered with comparable 125% tariffs on American products. This dangerous spiral threatens to unravel decades of careful work building the global trading system.

Mixed signals cloud the negotiation picture: the American President claims talks to lower tariffs are ongoing, while China flatly denies any active discussions, firmly stating it won’t negotiate under pressure. This stark contradiction makes clear the scale of the crisis and the enormous challenges in finding quick solutions.

Everyday people are already feeling the pinch. American households can expect to pay roughly $1,300 more for goods in 2025 due to these tariffs. In China, export businesses face severe hardship, putting millions of jobs at risk.

At the core of this standoff is China’s unwavering demand that the United States show “respect” before any meaningful talks can begin. This isn’t empty diplomatic posturing but translates deep resentment among Chinese leadership over Washington’s approach.

Beijing sees Washington’s attitude as condescending and arrogant rather than treating China as an equal on the world stage. Having risen to become the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner for most countries, China bristles at being treated like a developing nation that can simply be ordered around.

Hot-button issues like Taiwan and American sanctions against Chinese companies remain major sticking points. China views U.S. support for Taiwan as blatant interference in its internal affairs and sees sanctions as deliberate attempts to hobble its technological progress. As a result, Beijing insists any meaningful dialogue must start with Washington acknowledging China’s legitimate concerns and apologizing for what Beijing considers ongoing slights and intrusions.

In a clever strategic move, China has discovered a powerful new weapon in this trade battle: TikTok. Chinese manufacturers have launched viral videos exposing the massive gap between what luxury products cost to make in China versus what consumers pay in stores worldwide.

These wildly popular social media clips show how designer handbags selling for tens of thousands of dollars often cost just a few hundred to produce, and how branded athletic wear carries astronomical markups.

The videos serve dual purposes: they unmask global luxury brands while encouraging American consumers to bypass these labels and buy directly from Chinese producers at drastically lower prices.

This savvy approach shows game-changing tactics. China now sidesteps American tariff barriers by appealing directly to American shoppers. The strategy reveals China’s keen understanding of Western economic vulnerabilities, especially the luxury market’s dependence on enormous profit margins.

As tensions mount, one question looms largest: Who ultimately pays the highest price? The answer isn’t straightforward.

In the immediate term, everyday citizens in both countries bear the brunt. Americans see higher prices for imported goods, while Chinese workers watch jobs disappear as exports shrink. Global companies find themselves caught in a painful squeeze – trapped between steep tariffs and broken supply chains.

Meanwhile, China witnesses tough challenges in shifting its economy toward domestic consumption and building homegrown technological capabilities – a complex transformation that could take years or even decades to complete.

As this drama plays out, the world stands at a crucial crossroads. Either these superpowers find common ground to protect their shared interests, or we’ll witness deepening cracks in the global economic system with far-reaching consequences for worldwide stability and prosperity.

Experts agree that moving forward requires both sides to recognize that bone-crushing politics ultimately harms everyone. The United States must abandon its superiority complex and treat China as a true equal, while China needs to offer meaningful concessions on intellectual property protection and state-owned enterprise subsidies

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